Sunday, November 26, 2006

Israel's Long Term Prospects

Just beyond the horizon lies the specter of a nuclear threat to Israel. It seems increasingly likely that the international community will muster neither the will, nor the prowess, necessary to halt the inexorable march toward a nuclear armed Iran. Moscow seems intent on shifting the balance of power, where Israel's strategic edge is less and less pronounced, as evidenced by their recent providing of highly sophisticated surface-to-air missles meant to defend against incoming missile or air assaults. Once deployed, which is in six months on the outside, a preemptive strike against the Iranian nuclear facilities becomes little more than a pipedream.

And the threat does not end there.

The war by proxy, ably fought by Hezballah this summer, showed that supplying lethal weapons, capable, eventually, of bearing WMD tipped warheads, is not the stuff of next century technology.Terrorist organizations will probably be able to get their hands on some kind of mass-destruction device in the not-too-distant future as well.

A preemptive strike by Israel and/or the US and the consequences thereof, on the nuclear facilities of Iran, are analyzed quite thoroughly here, in a 2004 study from the Center for Nonproliferation Studies.

A preemptive nuclear strike by Israel against Iran would have such disastrous implications for the long-term survival of Israel, as to render such a move untenable. Israel would be viewed as the aggressor, as the nation which dropped the atomic bomb on the Muslim world, not vice versa, and would be shut down internationally. The Muslim countries will have been driven into a crazed frenzy of Jew-killing everywhere. Pakistan may very well supply her nuclear weapons to a neighboring country to retaliate against such a massive loss of life in the Muslim world.

What is Israel to do?

It seems absolutely essential that the missile defense system of Israel be as impervious to incoming missiles as possible.In March of this year, it seemed that the Arrow-2 did have the ability to knock down incoming missiles, at the assumed level of technological advancement of Iranian capabilities. However, in the beginning of this month, indications are that Iran showed capabilities beyond what the international community had been aware of, including the ability of the Shehab missiles to drop multiple bomblets simultaneously. Of course, this is just a layman's view of things - if anyone knows better for some silver lining - chime in!

Should Iran attempt, G-d forbid, to attack Israel with nuclear weapons, Israel must be ready to fight back with everything at its disposal, including her own nuclear weapons. There is no room for tepid responses to this occurence, and, yet, I wonder if the IDF ethic is capable of perpetrating that amount of civilian casualty. I hope, for the sake of the Jews living in Israel, that it is.

All this is only in the Hishtadlus realm. There is much work to do in terms of strengthening our commitment to the Ribbono Shel Olam and having Bitachon that he will save us from this present-day Haman.

But, in the back of my mind, I cannot rid myself of the possibility that, ultimately, we may have to resort to a modern-day Rabban Yochanan ben Zakkai negotiating for Yavneh and its Sages, the survival of Israel as a Torah center, if securing Jewish sovereignty proves to be beyond our grasp.

I daven that we merit a more satisfactory solution to this looming crisis.

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home